Controversy in Chemistry: How Do You Prove a Negative?-
The Cases of Phlogiston and Cold Fusion
By Jay A. Labinger* and Stephen J. Weininger*
Back to Science Philosophy and Science Journalism
Angewandte Chemie International Edition
2005, 44, 1916 -1922
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[only the second part of the article is reproduced here]
Case 2: The Short Life (but
Longer Afterlife) of Cold Fusion**
Our previous essay dealt with a
recent controversy, that of bond-stretch
isomerism, which was relatively unfamiliar
even to the majority of practicing
chemists, and completely unknown outside
their ranks. The roughly contemporaneous
case of cold fusion was entirely
the opposite. For several months in 1989
it was one of the hottest topics around-not just in scientific journals, but also in
newspapers, popular magazines, TV
shows, etc. We can think of no chemistry
story that has attained comparable visibility. Indeed, how it played out in the
public eye would merit a fascinating and
valuable examination in its own right,
but one that would far exceed the scope
of this Essay. Nor do we have space to
consider the claims and counterclaims in
any detail; in any case, most readers are
probably fairly familiar with at least the
basic outline. We present below a very
brief summary. For those who want to
know more, several full-length book
accounts, written from a variety of
perspectives (including scientist-nonbeliever,[28] scientist-agnostic/skeptic,[29]
scientist/science writer-nonbeliever,[30]
scientist/science writer-believer,[31] and
science writer-nonbeliever[32]) were
published within the first few years.
There are also a number of internetbased
bibliographies which can easily be
located on-line.
The controversy opened in March
1989, when University of Utah electrochemists
Stanley Pons and Martin
Fleischmann held a press conference to
announce that electrolysis of D2O at a
palladium electrode produced anomalous
effects, including liberation of energy
in excess of the input-in one case
to such an extreme extent as to melt the
Pd cathode and destroy the apparatus. A
publication appearing shortly afterwards
(but submitted prior to the press
conference) provided some details and
also reported neutron fluxes, g-rays at
the right energy to indicate proton-
neutron reactions, and accumulation of
tritium in the electrolyte.[33] Related, but
much less dramatic, findings (many fewer
neutrons, no excess heat) were published
around the same time by Steve
Jones, a physicist at Brigham Young
University.[34] (The two research groups
were aware of each other's work; concerns
over priority issues-patent rights
in particular-no doubt prompted the
unorthodox publication-by-press-conference
and substantially set the tone
for ensuing developments.) The authors
concluded that nuclear fusion, which
had been somehow catalyzed within the
Pd lattice, was the only possible explanation
for these observations.
The clear potential importance of
such a discovery, coupled with the
apparent experimental simplicity, inspired
many to attempt replication.
Within a matter of weeks a number of
positive findings were announced (mostly
by press release, like the original),
including excess heat (Texas A&M,
Stanford), neutrons (Georgia Tech),
and tritium (Washington, a different
group at Texas A&M). A special session
on cold fusion at the April 1989 ACS
national meeting attracted an audience
of around 7000 (mostly) enthusiastic
chemists. Almost immediately, though,
strong skepticism set in, as several of the
highly publicized "confirmations" were
retracted, with explanations of the experimental
problems responsible. A
special session at the American Physical
Society meeting at the beginning of May
featured a number of negative presentations;
one in particular (by Nate
Lewis, subsequently published[35]) reported
his research group's inability to
detect any excess heat, possible experimental
reasons why one might (erroneously)
detect excess heat, and a deconstruction
of the assumptions used by
Pons and Fleischmann that, he argued,
led to deducing excess heat evolved
from unconvincing data. Later in May,
a publication appeared demonstrating
that the claimed g-ray signature was
artifactual.[36]
Over the next year or so the controversy
continued, as further positive as
well as negative results appeared regularly.
A Department of Energy (DOE)
panel investigated the topic during the
summer, and issued its report-strongly
negative-in October. In August 1989
the National Cold Fusion Institute
(NCFI) was inaugurated in Salt Lake
City, funded by the state of Utah (after
federal support was refused). The First
Annual Conference on Cold Fusion was
held there in March 1990; the participants
were primarily (by design) those
with positive findings to report. In any
case the majority of critics had concluded
there was little left that needed to be
criticized, and ceased paying much attention.
By late 1990 both Pons and
Fleischmann had left Utah, and the
NCFI closed the following June. The
cold fusion controversy was effectively
over.
But not cold fusion. Research has
continued at a moderate level of activity
right up to the present day. A good deal
of the work has been published in nonmainstream
journals (some created for
the purpose) or electronically; but occasionally
papers have appeared in prestigious
locations, such as the 1993 paper
by Pons and Fleischmanns on calorimetry,
which was accepted by Physics
Letters A.[37] This publication merits notice
on further grounds: it reports what
appears to be the last joint experimental
work by Fleischmann and Pons on cold
fusion. Perhaps more importantly, it is
one of the last reports to be formally
challenged on technical grounds by a
cold fusion skeptic.[38] Subsequent
claims have been almost completely
ignored by the scientific mainstream,
and the popular media has generally
followed suit, with a few exceptions.
Compilations of this work may be found
on a number of websites, notably the
LENR-CANR (low energy nuclear reactions/
chemically assisted nuclear reactions)
site,[39] which features bibliographic
material and summaries, written
from the strong proponents' point of
view. A quite different (and intriguing)
perspective may be found in a recent
book by the sociologist of science Bart
Simon, who proposes a new model for
understanding how and why research
persists beyond the point where the vast
majority of the community considers the
field finished: he calls it "Undead Science".[40]
Two somewhat less fanciful, but
rather contradictory, conceptual models
have been offered for the consideration
of scientific controversies: one from an
internal point of view and one more
external. In fact they both seem to fit the
cold fusion saga pretty well. The first is
that of "pathological science", first described
by Irving Langmuir in a 1953
lecture (a transcription was republished
in Physics Today in 1989[41]) and subsequently
reprised and updated by
Denis Rousseau.[42] According to Rousseau,
pathological science has three
fundamental characteristics:
- Observed effects are near the limits
of detectability and/or statistically
marginally significant; their magnitudes
cannot be controlled in any
systematic way by varying experimental
parameters.
- Incompatibility with accepted theories
or principles is readily ignored.
- Investigators avoid carrying out critical,
potentially disconfirming experiments,
and refuse to accept any
such experiments carried out by
others as conclusive.
Rousseau argued that all three applied
to Pons and Fleischmann (the
other two cases he examined were
"polywater" and Benveniste's "infinite
dilution"), in which he called particular
attention to the complete lack of correspondence
between the excess heat
claimed and the levels of nuclear byproducts
detected (point 2), and the
failure to perform any control experiments
with ordinary water (point 3).
The first point applies to the question
of excess heat itself (although Rousseau
does not specifically comment on that):
even in the original paper[33] some of the
data (Table 2) appear to show effects
varying inversely with input, and subsequent
analysis established that many of
the most striking claims were actually
tiny numbers inflated by dubious assumptions.[
35]
A quite different perspective has
been proposed by the sociologist of
science Harry Collins. The "Experimenter's Regress", which was introduced
in a discussion of the search for
gravity waves, argues that it is impossible
to separate questions about the
existence or non-existence of a novel
phenomenon from questions about the
validity of the experiments designed to
detect it:
"When the normal criterion--successful outcome-
is not available, scientists disagree
about which experiments are competently
done.
Where there is disagreement about what
counts as a competently performed experiment,
the ensuing debate is coextensive
with the debate about the proper outcome
of the experiment".[43]
Clearly this may be applied to cold
fusion (as Collins and a colleague
did[44]): any negative finding can always
be (and has been) challenged as incorrectly
performed, such as claims that the
wrong kind of electrode was used, etc.
The fact that these dueling descriptors
are both operative has much to do
with the continued survival of cold
fusion research-if only as a ghostly
entity, as Simon would have it. How
should we view the more recent findings
in light of the earlier, substantially
discredited work? Pons and Fleischmann,
and others, made some rather
major errors that led to reports of large
effects-excess heat exceeding 1000%,
high levels of neutrons or tritium-so a
skeptic comfortably concludes that the
generally much smaller effects now
claimed are the result of more subtle
errors. Conversely, proponents can reasonably
argue that their later experimental
designs do take previous criticisms
into account, and should not be
automatically assumed to be tainted by
the same old mistakes; but they never
get the opportunity to defend themselves,
since nobody even bothers to
criticize them. A (rather plaintive) letter
to this effect, published in Chemical &
Engineering News in 2003,[45] elicited no
response at all. As Simon comments:
"No matter what kinds of new experiments
and data CF researchers present, their critics
(if even listening) always drag them
back to debates from 1989. There seems to
be no escape . Their collective identity as
a group as well as their scientific practice is
organized to a large degree around reclaiming
scientific legitimacy by constantly revisiting
the criticisms of 1989-1990. In part
they have no choice, since there are few
extant criticisms of work after 1990 that
they can address".[46]
Another factor in the post-mortem
survival of cold fusion has been its
decidedly chimerical nature. Which of
the various phenomena that have been
reported in the context of cold fusion-
excess heat, neutrons, tritium, X-rays, grays,
helium, even transmutation[47]-
are fundamental to whatever (if anything)
is going on? At least some of
these reports are indisputably erroneous,
but what does that imply about
others? For example, the philosopher of
science William McKinney, in arguing
that one can escape from the "Experimenter's Regress" on the basis of objective
analysis of experiments, suggested
that the unequivocal demonstration
of the artifactual g-ray signature (thus
undermining the claim for neutrons)
was the real "knockout blow" for cold
fusion.[48] However, cold fusion researchers
are committed to no theory,
so (on their account) excess heat need
not be tied to neutrons. Since nobody has seriously claimed to understand the
phenomena on the basis of any unifying
theory, there need not be any real links
between the various types of phenomena
studied. From a strictly logical point
of view, every individual experiment
would need to be evaluated on its own
merits: if one set of claims is debunked
to everyone's satisfaction, that does not
necessarily disprove another.
Indeed, one of the more recent
studies (by the above-cited letter-writer
Melvin Miles) reports detecting 4He
along with excess heat in more or less
commensurate amounts, if it is assumed
that the heat is produced by fusion of
two deuterons to produce 4He and
energy [Eq. (2)]. Furthermore, he
claims that although the generation of
excess heat is not always reproducible,
the two phenomena correlate well, and
the long-demanded control experiment
was performed: light-water experiments
exhibit neither excess heat nor 4He.[49]
Of course, in "standard" D+D fusion,
Equation (2) represents a very lowprobability
pathway compared to reactions
that generate neutrons and tritium,[50] and one would also need to
explain why the energy liberated shows
up entirely as heat rather than radiation
(and many more things besides). But if
one is willing to accept the possibility of
some kind of nonstandard nuclear process
going on within the Pd lattice (a big
if for many, but one that does not seem
to have much troubled cold fusion
researchers), there are no apparent
a priori grounds for dismissing these
and other findings. They might well be
subject to criticism on a variety of
experimental grounds; but as noted
above, work from the last ten years or
more has received little, if any, scrutiny
at all.
D + D --> 4He + [gamma] (23.77MeV) (2)
So there matters stand: no cold
fusion researcher has been able to dispel
the stigma of "pathological science" by
rigorously and reproducibly demonstrating
effects sufficiently large to exclude
the possibility of error (for example,
by constructing a working power
generator), nor does it seem possible to
conclude unequivocally that all the
apparently anomalous behavior can be
attributed to error. Under these circumstances, the DOE has decided to carry
out another review, which is underway
at the time of writing (summer 2004).
From the range of comments made in
response to that announcement,[51]
though, it seems most unlikely that their
report will settle matters:
"There are quite a few people who are putting
their time into this. They are working
under conditions that are bad for their
careers. They think they are doing something
that may result in some important
new finding. I think scientists should be
open minded. Historically, many things get
overturned with time."
"The critical question is, How good and different
are [the cold fusion researchers'] new
results? If they are saying, 'We are now
able to reproduce our results, that's not
good enough. But if they are saying, 'We
are getting 10 times as much heat out
now, and we understand things,' that
would be interesting. I don't see anything
wrong with giving these people a new
hearing."
"I think a review is a waste of time. But if
you put together a credible committee, you
can try to put the issue to bed for some
time. It will come back. The believers never
stop believing."
There are clear differences between
our two cases: whereas the phlogiston
controversy involved choosing the best
theoretical framework to rationalize a
set of experimental observations, with
cold fusion there are essentially no
theoretical frameworks among which
to choose. Instead we have a set of
observations that cannot be rationalized
in terms of existing standard theory, and
need to decide whether they (or some
fraction thereof) are real anomalies that
require new ideas, or mere mistakes.
The majority of the scientific community
has (explicitly or implicitly) opted for
the second interpretation, just as the
majority decided against phlogiston at
the end of the 18th century. But the
minority positions, then and now, were
sustained for a considerable period. It is
easy, but (as we have tried to show)
much too simplistic, to invoke irrationality
to explain this persistence of heterodoxy.
Instead, these two cases illustrate
that, once the human imagination
has conceived an idea, it can sometimes
be very difficult to prove its non-existence.
References
* Dr. J. A. Labinger
Beckman Institute
California Institute of Technology, 139-74
Pasadena, CA 91125 (USA)
Fax: (+1) 626-449-4159
E-mail: jal@its.caltech.edu
Prof. S. J. Weininger
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Worcester, MA 01609-2280 (USA)
Fax: (+1) 508-831-5933
E-mail: stevejw@wpi.edu
[28] J. R. Huizenga, Cold Fusion: the Scientific
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Rochester Press, Rochester, 1992.
[29] N. Hoffman, A Dialogue on Chemically
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[30] F. Close, Too Hot to Handle: The Race
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[31] G. Mallove, Fire from Ice: Searching for
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[32] G. Taubes, Bad Science: The Short Life
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[39] http://www.lenr-canr.org/.
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[47] Ref. [40], pp. 150-153.
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