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Historical Analysis of Key "Cold Fusion" Experiments
by  Steven B. Krivit
Copyright 2004 New Energy Timestm

 

Table of Contents
Early Studies Showing Errors in Experiments that allegedly debunked "Cold Fusion"

Successful Excess Power Replications

Legend

Controversial MIT Cold Fusion Graphs 

Index of Reference papers

Excerpts From Reference Papers

 

Early Studies Showing Errors in Experiments that allegedly debunked "Cold Fusion"
Legend
 

Year of Report

Analysts (# on Team)

Cal Tech (Ref #)

MIT (Ref #)

Harwell (Ref #)

1991

1st China Lake Team (2)

Possible EP
Major Errors(1)

Major Errors(1)

Major Errors(1)

1991

Noninski & Noninski

  

Possible EP(16) 

  

1992

Melich & W. Hansen

    

Possible EP (3)

1993

Noninski & Noninski

Possible EP
Major Errors(4)

Major Errors(4)

  

1993

2nd China Lake Team (5)

Possible EP 
Major Errors(5)

    

1993

Swartz & Mallove

Major Errors(6)

Possible EP (6

  

1994

Melich & W. Hansen

Major Errors(7)

  

Major Errors(7)

1994

3rd China Lake Team (3)

Major Errors(9)

Major Errors(9)

Major Errors(9)

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Successful Excess Power Replications
 Legend
 

Year Analysts 
(# on Team)		 Fleischmann & Pons (Ref #) China Lake (Ref# Amoco (Ref #) Shell (Ref#) SRI (Ref #)
1991 Wilford Hansen
(Performed Analysis)

EP
Not chemistry(2)

        
1991 Alan J. Bard, Charlie Barnes, Howard Birnbaum
(Performed Analysis)		         EP 
No major errors (14)
1993 2nd China Lake 
Team (5)
(Performed Replication)		  

EP 
Correlated heat & Helium-4 (5)

      

1993

 Richard Garwin & Nathan Lewis
(Performed Analysis)		        

EP 
No major errors (15)

1994

Melich & W. Hansen
(Performed Analysis)

EP (7)

  

EP
Tritium (7)

    

1995

 Shell (3)
(Performed Replication)		      

EP
He-4 (10)

  
1995

Amoco (3)
(Performed Replication)

    

EP
Tritium
Not chemistry (11)

    

 

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Legend
 
# On Team  Total number of scientists listed performing analysis per report
Ref # Reference number from index below
Possible EP Possible Excess Power, indicative of possible nuclear reaction
Major Errors Notes findings of major errors 
EP Strong evidence of Excess Power, indicative of possible nuclear reaction
Not Chemistry Strong evidence against possible chemical explanation
Correlated Heat & Helium-4 Presence of EP correlated to quantity of nuclear products, supports claims of nuclear reaction
No major errors Notes findings of no major errors 
Tritium Notes findings of tritium, a nuclear product 
He-4 Notes findings of helium-4, a nuclear product  

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Controversial M.I.T. Cold Fusion Graphs
Images provided courtesy of and with permission from Dr. Mitchell R. Swartz and Jet Technology Press
P.O. Box 81135 Wellesley Hills, MA USA 02481

Graphs show unpublished charts on the left, (control) hydrogen cell on top, (test) deuterium cell on bottom. Note predominant signal above baseline in deuterium cell. On right are adjusted charts, again with (control) hydrogen cell on top, (test) deuterium cell on bottom. Note points representing the deuterium cell signal are centered along baseline. 
 

 
 


Published and unpublished light water charts superimposed upon one another showing general agreement with original signal. 
 

 
 


Published and unpublished heavy water charts superimposed upon one another showing the adjustment bias.
 

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Index of Reference Papers

 
Ref. 1  Year 1991
  Author  "1st China Lake Team"  Melvin H. Miles and Benjamin F. Bush
  Affiliation Chemistry Division, Research Department Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division China Lake, CA 93555-6001 USA
  Paper Title   Calorimetric Principles and Problems in Pd-D2O Electrolysis
  Publication The Third International Conference on Cold Fusion. 1991. Nagoya, Japan:, Universal Academy Press, Inc., Tokyo: p. 113.
 
Ref. 2 Year 1991
  Author  Hansen, Wilford.N.
  Affiliation Physics Department, Utah State University Logan, UT 84322-4415
  Paper Title   Report to the Utah State Fusion/Energy Council on the Analysis of Selected Pons Fleischmann Calorimetric Data 
  Publication Second Annual Conference on Cold Fusion, 1991. Como, Italy: Societa Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy.
 
Ref. 3 Year 1992
  Author  Melich, Michael E. and W.N. Hansen
  Affiliation Naval Postgraduate School, Physics Department, Utah State University 
  Paper Title   Some Lessons from 3 Years of Electrochemical Calorimetry
  Publication Third International Conference on Cold Fusion, 1992. Nagoya Japan: Universal Academy Press, Inc., Tokyo,Japan.
 
Ref. 4 Year 1993
  Author  Noninski, V.C. and C.I. Noninski
  Affiliation Fitchburg State College, Department of Chemistry, Fitchburg, MA 01420
  Paper Title   Notes on Two Papers Claiming No Evidence for the Existence of Excess Energy During the Electrolysis of 0.1 M LiOD/D2O with Palladium Cathodes
  Publication Fusion Technology, Vol.23, July 1993, pp.474-476.
 
Ref. 5 Year 1993
  Author  "2nd China Lake Team" Miles, M*., R.A. Hollins*, B.F. Bush ** and JJ. Lagowski**, R.E. Miles ***
  Affiliation * Chemistry Division, Research Department, Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division, China Lake, CA 93555 (USA); ** Department of Chemistry, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (USA); *** Nuclear Safety Department, E.G.&G. Rocky Flats Inc., Rocky Flats Plant, Golden, CO 80402 (USA)
  Paper Title   Correlation of excess power and helium production during D2O and H2O electrolysis using palladium cathodes
  Publication J. Electroanal. Chem., 1993. 346: p. 99   Also similarly published 1994, Fusion Technol., 1994. 25: p. 478.
 
Ref. 6 Year 1993
  Author  Swartz, Mitchell
  Affiliation JET Technologies, Inc.
  Paper Title   Some Lessons from Optical Examination of the PFC Phase-II Calorimetric Curves
  Publication Vol. 2, Proceedings: "Fourth International Conference on Cold Fusion", sponsored by EPRI and the Office of Naval Research, December (1993).
 
Ref. 7 Year 1994
  Author  Melich, M.E. and W.N. Hansen.
  Affiliation Naval Postgraduate School, Physics Department, Utah State University 
  Paper Title   Back to the Future, The Fleischmann-Pons Effect in 1994
  Publication Fourth International Conference on Cold Fusion. 1993. Lahaina, Maui: Electric Power Research Institute 3412 Hillview Ave., Palo Alto, CA 94304.
 
Ref. 8 Year 1994
  Author  W.N. Hansen and Melich, M.E.
  Affiliation Utah State University,Naval Postgraduate School, Physics Department
  Paper Title   Pd/D Calorimetry - The Key To The F/P Effect And A Challenge To Science
  Publication Fourth International Conference on Cold Fusion. 1993. Lahaina, Maui: Electric Power Research Institute 3412 Hillview Ave., Palo Alto, CA 94304, Transactions of Fusion Technology, Vol. 26, Number 4T, Part 2, December 1994: p. 355..
 
Ref. 9 Year 1994
  Author  "3rd China Lake Team" Miles, Melvin., Benjamin F. Bush, and David E. Stilwell 
  Affiliation Chemistry Division, Research Department Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division China Lake, CA 93555-6001 USA
  Paper Title   Calorimetric principles and problems in measurements of excess power during Pd-D2O electrolysis 
  Publication J. Phys. Chem., 1994. 98: p. 1948
 
Ref. 10 Year 1995
  Author  Shell Team - J. DuFour, J. Foos, J.P. Millot
  Affiliation

Shell Research/ CNAM Laboratoire des Sciences Nucléaires 2 rue Conté  75 003 Paris, 9 April 1995

  Paper Title   Measurement of Excess Energy and Isotope Formation in the Palladium-Hydrogen System  
  Publication Listed in index as ICCF5 paper # 604, but unpublished
 
Ref. 11 Year 1995
  Author  Amoco Team - T. Lautzenhiser, D.W. Phelps,  M.Eisner
  Affiliation Amoco, University of Houston
  Paper Title   Cold Fusion: Report on a Recent Amoco Experiment
  Publication

Amoco Production Company, Report T-90-E-02, 90081ART0082, 19, March 1990, Private Report
 
Ref. 12 Year 1995
  Author  M. Eisner
  Affiliation University of Houston
  Paper Title   The Serendipitous Design and Execution of an Early Experiment  which confirmed Heat in the Fleischmann-Pons Effect (paper unavailable)
  Publication ICCF5 paper # 212
 
Ref. 13 Year 1999
  Author  Mallove, E.
  Affiliation New Energy Foundation, Inc.
  Paper Title   MIT Special Report
  Publication Infinite Energy, 1999. 4(24): p. 64.
 
Ref. 14 Year 1991
  Author  Alan J. Bard*, Charlie Barnes**, Howard Birnbaum***
  Affiliation * College of Natural Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, ** Department of Physics, California Institute of Technology, *** Materials Science, Hydrogen in Metals, University of Illinois
  Paper Title   Comments on SRI RP-3170 Review Meeting 25-26 March 1991
  Publication Unpublished, Private Report
 
Ref. 15 Year 1993
  Author  JASONS Team: Richard L. Garwin* (Chairman) and Nathan Lewis** (member) 
  Affiliation * IBM Fellow Emeritus,  Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM, ** Chemistry Department, California Institute of Technology
  Paper Title   Report from SRI Visit October 19, 1993
  Publication Unpublished, Private Report
 
Ref. 16 Year 1991
  Author  Noninski, V.C. and C.I. Noninski   
  Affiliation Fitchburg State College, Department of Chemistry, Fitchburg, MA 01420
  Paper Title   Comments on 'measurement and analysis of neutron and gamma-ray emission rates, other fusion products, and power in electrochemical cells having palladium cathodes' 
  Publication Fusion Technol., 1991. 19: p.579.
 

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Excerpts From Reference Papers  

 
Ref. 1 Author "1st China Lake Team"  Melvin H. Miles and Benjamin F. Bush
  Summary

-  Caltech, MIT and Harwell - major errors in experiments.
-  Caltech evidence of EP of 0.076 W @ 1.0W/cm3 closely matches their own experimental 1.3W/cm3 as well as that of a 1990 experiment by Fleischmann
-  Poor error tolerance for MIT's calorimeter of +/- 40 mW, Harwell's of +/-15%, compared to Fleischmann's +/- 1 mW
  Excerpts

-  A careful re-examination of earlier results from several laboratories  (California Institute of Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Harwell Laboratory) is needed in terms of our present understanding of electrochemical calorimetry. Error sources in their experiments are discussed. There is possible evidence for excess power production in the Pd-D2O electrolysis experiments at one of these laboratories.

-  This neglect of Ρx by N. Lewis et. al. in the equation defining h would lead to an increase in the heating coefficient as the excess power increases.  

-  an excess power effect develops that becomes as large as 0.076 W after 161 hours of Pd/D2O + LiOD electrolysis. The excess power density of 1.0 W/cm3 Pd for this analysis of the N. Lewis study is in excellent agreement with our experiments (1.3 W/cm3 Pd at 200 mA/cm2) as well as with the results reported by M. Fleischmann et. al. in 1990.

-  The calorimetric error ranges of ±40 mW for the M.I.T. studies and ±15% excess power (±2σ) for the Harwell calorimetry fall far short of the ±1 mW accuracy reported by M. Fleischmann et. al. 

-  The early cold fusion calorimetric results by several major laboratories in 1989-1990 contain serious errors that will ultimately undermine the acceptance of these studies as credible electrochemical calorimetry. These publications by N. Lewis, D. E. Williams, D. Albagli and others, however, serve to illustrate important calorimetric principles, problems, and sources of error relating to attempts to measure excess power in the Pd-D2O system.

Table 2. Analysis of Cal Tech Calorimetric Results.a 

Pout = (Tcell -25.30)/h where h = 14.0°C/w 
 

Exp. 

Time (h) 

Current Density (mA/cm2) 

Tcell (°C) 

Pin (W) 

Pin (W) 

PX(W) 

A-l 

A-2 

14.7 

16.0 

108 

74 

31.80 31.82

0.464 0.466

0.463 0.467

0.001b 

-0.001 

B-l B-2 

63.7 

66.0 

74 

110

32.04 32.01

0.481 0.479